Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are promising massive cancellation of student debt. There is around $1.5 Trillion in outstanding educational debt and 1-in-8 Americans are currently paying off educational loans. These loan forgiveness plans are promoted in the name of fairness, broader opportunity for the middle class and working class, and reducing inequality. The costs … Continue reading Misleading statistics on college debt forgiveness
Misleading statistics on unemployment
Unemployment is one of the most cited statistics in gauging the health of the economy. Low unemployment numbers are used to suggest that the economy is thriving. Today, the official unemployment rate is 3.5%. Conclusions drawn from unemployment rate, without considering other statistics, may be highly misleading. There are two key statistics that need to … Continue reading Misleading statistics on unemployment
Misleading statistics on the retirement crisis
The issue of retirement savings in the United States needs more sensible discussion and fewer sensationalist headlines such as The Retirement Crisis is Much Worse Than You Think and Fears of a Retirement Crisis are Overblown - and These Numbers Prove It. Unfortunately, discussions of this topic are rife with simplistic and misleading statistical arguments. … Continue reading Misleading statistics on the retirement crisis
Misleading statistics on the economic value of college
One of the most commonly-cited statistics about college is that the average graduate from a four-year college will earn a million dollars more over their lifetime than a high-school graduate. Most recently, this statistic has been propagated in a study at Georgetown, but this talking point has been around for much longer. Will a college … Continue reading Misleading statistics on the economic value of college
Misleading statistics
I am writing a series of posts on the theme of misleading statistics. As a quantitative analyst, my business is using statistics to inform decisions. Previously, when I worked as a scientist for NASA, I focused on statistical models as well. It is not surprising, then, that I am often in situations when a writer … Continue reading Misleading statistics
Thoughts on being a quant
I have worked on developing quantitative models in finance for more than twenty years. I am what is referred to as a quant. People who work as quants typically have advanced degrees in a STEM discipline and expertise in developing and testing mathematical models. It is common for quants to enter finance after they have … Continue reading Thoughts on being a quant
DIY Equity-Linked Notes
Over the years, I occasionally run into equity-linked notes (ELNs), financial products that are often sold as providing access to some of the potential upside from stocks and guaranteed protection of principal (there are many variations of ELNs). Most recently, I read a super-enthusiastic sales pitch on these products in Tony Robbins' book, MONEY: Master … Continue reading DIY Equity-Linked Notes
Is it useful to discuss the ‘average American’?
In discussions of all sorts of public policy, it is common to see references to the average American or the average household. It seems to me that the entire idea of the average American household may be fairly meaningless. About 33% of Americans have a college education. The average incomes of people with college degrees … Continue reading Is it useful to discuss the ‘average American’?
When early retirement doesn’t work out
As a financial professional and an avid individual investor, I have followed the evolution of the Financial Independence / Retire Early (FIRE) movement with considerable interest. I have written a couple of blog posts on FIRE here and here. I just ran across an article saying that one of my favorite FIRE authors, Financial Samurai … Continue reading When early retirement doesn’t work out
Econometric analysis of the S&P 500: November 2007 vs. November 2019
Trend-following models have a long history in portfolio management, and there is solid evidence that these strategies can provide risk-adjusted return that is above a buy-and-hold approach. The simplest approach to trend following is to buy when the price of an asset class (as represented by an index fund, for example) rises above the trailing … Continue reading Econometric analysis of the S&P 500: November 2007 vs. November 2019
Geoff Considine on Finance and Economics 