Radical uncertainty and COVID-19

May 18, 2020June 29, 2021 ~ Geoff Considine

I have been reading a very interesting book called Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers. The authors' thesis is that people, companies, and governments place far too much faith in quantitative predictions and measures. The failure of predictions and planning lies in the inherent limitations in our understanding and data. This relates to Nassim Taleb's … Continue reading Radical uncertainty and COVID-19

Instead of FIRE, consider this

September 26, 2019January 1, 2020 ~ Geoff Considine

There is an endless stream of articles discussing the Financial Independence / Retire Early (FIRE) movement. The plan is to save a very high percentage of your working income, invest the proceeds, and then retire young and live off of investment income. There is, however, another way to achieve many or all of the benefits … Continue reading Instead of FIRE, consider this

Rethinking earnings and consumption through life

September 15, 2019December 11, 2019 ~ Geoff Considine

In the United States, many people are re-evaluating the traditional model of working and saving through life. The traditional model is that you get an education and then work full-time until you exit the workforce entirely and live on a pension, Social Security, and/or savings. In recent years, the Financial Independence / Retire Early (FIRE) … Continue reading Rethinking earnings and consumption through life

Redefining middle age

June 30, 2019January 1, 2020 ~ Geoff Considine

The ways that people envision and plan their lives start with concepts about the "natural" stages of life. These concepts change over time, though. As people live longer, new ideas are emerging about how to characterize mid-life in developed economies. More people are thinking in terms of a new stage of life, the second middle … Continue reading Redefining middle age

There are (at least) two distinct gig economies

May 18, 2019May 18, 2019 ~ Geoff Considine

There is little question that people working in non-traditional employment (freelancers, contractors, other forms of self-employment) make up a substantial and growing fraction of the working population. McKinsey estimates that about 20%-30% of Americans and Europeans perform independent work. Some estimates for the U.S. are even higher. There are projections that as much as half … Continue reading There are (at least) two distinct gig economies

Emerging features of work

April 17, 2019November 27, 2019 ~ Geoff Considine

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) calculated that the self-employed comprised about sixteen percent of the American workforce in 2015, up from 10% in 2005. Morgan Stanley estimates that as many as 35% of American workers are self-employed. Deloitte reports that 27% of Millennials are self employed and 54% have either started their own … Continue reading Emerging features of work