I have been reading a very interesting book called Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers. The authors' thesis is that people, companies, and governments place far too much faith in quantitative predictions and measures. The failure of predictions and planning lies in the inherent limitations in our understanding and data. This relates to Nassim Taleb's … Continue reading Radical Uncertainty and COVID-19
While experts have been warning about the potential for global pandemics for years, the emergence and spread of COVID-19 has been an enormous shock to societal systems. Along with the risk to life and health, many families have have been thrown into economic turmoil. In a world with the potential for social and economic shocks … Continue reading Does COVID-19 change the rules of personal finance?
In finance, the term "real option" refers to having the ability to make an economically-valuable choice (see here for quantitative explanation). There is considerable literature on real options in many areas of finance, but I have yet to see a discussion of how this concept applies to personal finance. I have come to believe that … Continue reading Building ‘real options’ in financial planning