Category: Uncategorized

An optimist’s view of the future of work

~ Geoff Considine

Today's workers face challenges that previous generations did not. First, a diminishing fraction of company earnings goes to workers. Second, real job security is largely a thing of the past. Third, employers provide less generous benefits than they used. Workers bear an increasing share of the costs of healthcare and traditional pensions have been replaced … Continue reading An optimist’s view of the future of work

There are (at least) two distinct gig economies

~ Geoff Considine

There is little question that people working in non-traditional employment (freelancers, contractors, other forms of self-employment) make up a substantial and growing fraction of the working population. McKinsey estimates that about 20%-30% of Americans and Europeans perform independent work. Some estimates for the U.S. are even higher. There are projections that as much as half … Continue reading There are (at least) two distinct gig economies

Are college return-on-investment calculations meaningful?

~ Geoff Considine

With the rapid increases in costs of higher education, there has been a related effort to calculate whether college is worth the cost. One well-known site, built by Payscale.com, has created a database of 20-year earnings for graduates of a vast array of U.S. colleges and universities and compared these to costs. From these data, … Continue reading Are college return-on-investment calculations meaningful?

How technology has broken some economic concepts

~ Geoff Considine

In the industrial era, economists thought they had a pretty good handle on economic drivers. Low interest rates spur investment. Investment results in more hiring. More hiring drives wages upwards as companies compete for workers. Having more and better-paid workers creates competition for goods and services as they spend their wages, thereby pushing prices upwards … Continue reading How technology has broken some economic concepts

The fairness of college debt forgiveness

~ Geoff Considine

On April 21st, I published a blog post arguing that educational debt forgiveness is largely untenable, even ignoring the cost. As it happened, I had already written the post when presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren announced large-scale debt forgiveness as a major part of her platform. There are myriad problems with debt forgiveness but the most … Continue reading The fairness of college debt forgiveness

Are stocks too expensive to be attractive?

~ Geoff Considine

The foundation of fundamental analysis is determining whether companies, sectors, and markets are expensive or cheap relative to measures of their inherent value. The most commonly-cited measure of value for stocks is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. We might look at the most-recent year's earnings, the standard for P/E, or average earnings over a longer period … Continue reading Are stocks too expensive to be attractive?

Tallying the ultimate costs of debt

~ Geoff Considine

Carrying debt can have costs far beyond the interest paid, something that few people fully appreciate. Debt repayment has substantial opportunity costs, which means that there are decisions that are unavailable because you are repaying debts. A substantial component of these opportunity costs relates to tax benefits. Lost tax benefits The single most important opportunity … Continue reading Tallying the ultimate costs of debt